偶尔听到上海年轻人谈论国际事务，他们的结论就是美国现在处于危险中，但上海仍然一切都好。上海依然很好，而且越来越好。在房地产市场中，人们像赌博一样行事。即便传说中的房地产泡沫破裂，也感觉不到游戏行将结束的气息。它还是一场游戏，只是你需要更多的悟性才能成功。

政府似乎愈发严肃对待为使住宅市场降温而付出的努力。在数年的尝试之后，工作好像有了成效，在包括上海在内的几个热点市场，二手房售价似乎开始下降。但业界仍对这将对其他房地产资产类别意味着什么采取观望态度。有些人转向写字楼，但大多数人感到更多的注意力将投向零售市场。专家预测对某些人来说，这将造成撞车般的惨痛结果，但对于某些应对得当的人则会带来丰厚回报。现在，中国最大的房地产企业正在冒险进入影院、购物中心市场，极少数正在进入写字楼市场。

分层销售

中国的写字楼大部分为乙级或更低级别，由于各层的所有权单独出售，对于顶级公司的吸引力更低，这种方式会对统一可靠的管理造成障碍。缺乏有效的资产管理以及综合设施管理手段匮乏使得这些物业对于租客或投资者而言没有吸引力。但在分层销售群体中，有一些能够脱颖而出的惊人范例。首先是取得难以置信成功的SOHO 集团，它的模式建立在分层销售基础上。但看起来没有人在追随他们的模式。

甲级物业一直是单个所有人。直到最近，一项轰动一时的交易改变了这种状况。Mori 是一家国际开发商，延续传统的国际模式建造甲级物业，供甲级租客使用并从中赚取租金收入。最近它开始在上海标志性的建筑环球金融中心（“开瓶器”）销售楼层。Colliers International

华东和东南区总经理 Lina Wong 与该项交易关系密切，她说自己对于这种决策感到“相当意外”。她说可以预想其他主要物业权持有人将会跟进。根据报道，Mori 销售一个楼层的净收入达到 4000 万美元，这是推动别人跟进的强大动力。

这些销售都将附带条件。与环球金融中心分层销售楼层买家的销售协议避免了分层所有权会引发的许多问题。对转售和管理的限制极为严格。例如，Wong 解释说，他们可能仅出售给终端用户，而不向投资者出售，因为投资者可能分租，这会有损建筑的声誉。此外，住户要严格遵循现有管理合同和安全要求。

中国目前以国有企业为主导。但国际企业已经进入中国市场，在逐步发展壮大的同时努力要分一杯羹，但它们正在与一个自给自足程度日益提高的市场展开竞争。对于商业房地产经纪公司来说，这意味着希望和变革。

Wong 说，甲级物业的所有人将建筑转为房地产信托投资基金 (REIT) 将不那么令人意外，如香港的长江实业就拥有多个 REIT。但中国的 REIT 一直不是很成功，原因在于与新加坡等更为成功的市场相比，税收环境没有吸引力。

Wong 说，中国的市场规模使其成为理想的REIT 市场，但汇款货币问题可能无法顺利实现收益变现。她总结道“每个人都希望获得一个上市工具”，像很多人一样，她正在观察未上市的 陆家嘴私人 REIT，很多人将其视为政府的试验田。

对于本领域的投资者来说，机会仍然存在，华瑞信托 (China Treasury Trust) 首席执行官Richard David如是说。尽管承认与大多数交易无缘，他并不担心自己会被迫与多个所有人进行协商以获得分层空间。David 看到了大量机会，无须经过迂回曲折的投资和重振分层所有权建筑的路线。

对住户的意义

一旦商业专家完成对积极投资和零售市场的讨论，他们会接着更详细的讨论写字楼市场。市场非常活跃。在 Cushman and Wakefield看来，大型商业区写字楼住户，如律师、会计师和咨询事务所以及服务领域的企业尤其活跃。面对中国复杂的监管环境，国际企业每走一步都需要这些公司的指导，所以上述情形表明外国投资活动会日益增长。

在国际上市的本土企业也需要他们提供的服务，因为这些行业在繁荣发展。C&W 还看到了像葛兰素史克这种销售人员队伍快速增长的健康和生命科学企业的需求，这增加了对上海和其他城市办公空间的需求。

Collier 的 Wong 不会说某一行业格外强劲，而是说所有领域都表现强劲，反弹比预期要强很多。在 08/09 年，上海多家跨国公司希望扩张，但由于公司内部禁令，总部不会允许它们这样做。现在它们得到了总部的许可，在加大力度寻找办公空间。

金融办公空间

两年前，银行处于金融漩涡中心，但现在对于银行如何扩展，存在多种选择方案。C&W 认为，在大型写字楼的发展进程中，银行不再是行动中心。

CB Richard Ellis 商务主管 Mark Latham说，他们近期完成的几项交易都涉及到银行，显然这个行业正在有所动作，包括面向一家本地金融机构的大型交易。他指出，银行进入这个市场，渴望达成涉及命名权的交易。当看到陆家嘴天空下国际银行的霓虹灯（实际名称为 LED）显示屏闪闪发亮时，他们也想有一块属于自己的显示屏。他们希望，并意识到也需要宣传自己对这片房产的权利。

Wong 倾向于持赞同态度。政府已经宣布，上海将成为中国乃至亚洲的金融中心。她说“我从没听说过的银行”正在蜂拥而入。来自偏远城市的本土中国区域性银行正在商业区买房置地，其中很多银行希望在知名写字楼中拥有一席之地。作为可以实现很高利润率的行业，他们能够承受并且实际上需要这种空间。

此外，Wong 还说，经济合作架构协议(ECFA) 是一年前中国台湾和大陆之间签订的一项优惠贸易协定，台湾地区的银行同样也在借此机会寻求扩张。本土银行和越来越多的本土企业正在与国际金融机构一起寻找甲级写字楼，高端开发商的未来一片光明。

问题在于大型的本土开发商尚未向企业商业市场投资。Wong 说建造写字楼需要耐心和资金。尽管如此，本土开发商可能越来越有意为之，尤其是香港上市公司。虽然与其他地方的开发商相比，他们打造住宅地产的能力可能毫不逊色，可能还要技高一筹，但从最乐观的角度看，他们在其他资产类别的经验同样有限。但住宅地产能够带来现金流，可能成效良好，但它将使公司手中缺乏资产，并且不能提供商业物业带来的稳定收入流。

翻新模式

在一天结束之时，C&W 亚洲区首席执行官Sanjay Kumar 称市场规模很小，上海写字楼面积仅有 500 万平方米，是纽约等城市写字楼面积的四分之一或五分之一。上海拥有2200 万人口（约相当于澳大利亚人口总数），新建筑或现有写字楼的升级必然蕴含大量机会，因为很多现有写字楼质量欠佳。

包括 Peter Churchouse 在内的部分专家在亚洲写字楼会议上表示，他认为质量较差的写字楼的唯一出路就是推倒重建。但 Wong认为在拆毁之前，翻新可能是权宜之计。例如 Cross Building，Colliers 非常幸运的在重新装修之后将它出售了两次。

在 CBRE 的 Latham 看来，上海是一座“动感之城”。几乎没有人会否认这一观点。但对于要往哪里变，则存在着多种选择方案。他说，在写字楼方面，不同城区纷纷自行定位以吸引不同的行业部门。静安区吸引高端零售商，黄浦区则吸引了不愿意跨河到政府指定的陆家嘴金融中心发展的金融服务公司。

Latham 说，随着各地区的逐步增长和开发，不同的地区对租户的吸引力也各不相同。举例来说，他指出，多年来浦东一直缺少就餐或其他娱乐选择，并作为大家公认的未开发地区而广受诟病，但现在情况发生了变化。与之类似，一个地区的建筑越多，需要的零售和交通选择就会随之扩展，以满足需求。他说静安的嘉里中心是推动该地区的繁荣发展的因素之一。

同样，他不仅仅分析了大家公认的有趣零售市场是什么，还称不应低估其对写字楼领域的影响。聪明的消费者希望他们的写字楼能够和高端零售平台结合在一起。

展望未来

华瑞信托是一家在新加坡上市的法人公司，比很多机构更了解中国市场的要求。首席执行官 Richard David 说决定在投资中国商业市场时，他属于“个中老手”。在继续描述他在中国度过的时光之前，他声称“我是房地产业的老兵”。上世纪 90 年代末，他曾在天津参与首宗整体出售的商业交易。他声称自己是少数建筑所有人之一，这些所有人持有商业写字楼投资组合。他也称自己是极少数买家中的一员，他们购买目的是翻新、更名并出让给更优质的群体租客。

他对房地产市场的看法同样独一无二。他说上海并非一个周期性市场，也不是短周期市场，而是还没有周期。市场太年轻了。市场的浮沉受到了全球经济周期的影响，也是市场寻求自身投资组合和立足点的表现。2011年第一季度，TCT 的主要写字楼投资组合更新了现有资产或者签订了新租约，租金上涨12%。他代表了一种看似有效的模式。一些租客被请出之后心怀不满，曾采取法律行动，而这一模式经受住了考验并具备了法律依据。他将企业描述为“在新加坡上市股票指导下的私营物业公司”，并强调需要有关建筑、租客和市场活动的实时信息。他说，进入市场寻求投资机会、但又“无事可做”的人一定会受挫。他说本土人士对商业市场的兴趣越来越大，市场很大，能够容纳多个企业。

这是好现象，因为无论他们选择进入分层投资、意在翻新的整体投资还是力求成为自住业主，上海市场都有增长的空间。即便事实证明上海的年轻人犯了错误或者出现了最坏的情况——全球唱空者的观点得到了验证，即整个中国经济就是一个等待破裂的泡沫，但从本地情况来看，增长依然会继续。公司将继续运营，如同两年前一样。不论经济如何跌宕起伏，对优质写字楼的需求会一直存在。那些快速行动提供写字楼并了解市场的人，他们无法左右市场但，能在市场上获得成功。

The German Centre in Shanghai is a model in more ways than one. Through showcasing multiple German technologies it has become an exemplar of how efficient, effective and slick green buildings can be.

Florian Gobel, Deputy General Manager, GECC sits in one of the greenest buildings in Shanghai. The German Energy Centre and College not only serves as a showcase for German green building technology it is also a college and training centre where all manner of interested professionals can gain knowledge about energy efficient practices for the built environment.

As Gobel commences his tour it becomes clear that while modest in size the two storey structure packs a lot of punch when it comes to incorporating best in class technologies.  The building itself is a completely closed envelope so that heat, ventilation and cooling can be completely regulated through the state of the art energy management system controlled though an easy to use desk top application. Read more on A Model Partnership…

By Nancy Zhang

Opportunities in the commercial property sector in mainland China has long been overshadowed by the furore over price bubbles in the residential sector. But commercial property is set to become increasingly lucrative for investors and developers, especially in certain key second and third tier cities, says Dr. Tang Daizhong, deputy dean of the Jingwei Real Estate Research Institute in Shanghai. The institute is affiliated with Tongji University, one of the top research centres for urban planning and architecture in mainland China.

{jcomments off}

Tang, who is an advisor to district governments around the country as well as companies, tells RFP how developers and investors are being encouraged to turn to the commercial sector as policies tighten around residential property. However there are several risk factors here that make bubbles in future even more likely than in the residential sector, and more difficult to control once formed.

2010 was marked by decisive moves from the Chinese government to curb rising house prices, including suspending mortgages for third-home purchases and interest rate hikes. By October, these measures resulted in the slowest price growth in ten months across 70 major Chinese cities, according to figures from China’s statistics bureau. And now into 2011 we see residential prices slowly dipping in a few key cities where the bubble was viewed as most severe.

Yet for investors, property still remains attractive relative to the risk of the stock market, and due to the lack of other investment options.

In contrast, the commercial sector is not subject to recent tightening measures and is unlikely to be targeted by future policy changes.

Moreover, demand and rental prices will grow steadily over the next five to ten years, according to Tang, as the 1980s generation enter their 30s.

“Commercial property, especially retail, will benefit from the coming generation change in China. The 1980s, single-child generation will soon enter their earning peak with both parents still supplying them with additional financial help. Their spending power will therefore peak around 2015 and then taper off as they start to take on the burden of supporting two sets of ageing parents.”

In this regulatory environment, developers are transferring some of their capital from the residential to commercial sector. The move also helps to diversify their portfolio as commercial properties provide steady rental incomes. The record profits earned so far with one-off sales of residential housing cannot be sustained indefinitely.

But the shift to commercial property investment holds several risks.

“The success of retail and office developments relies a great deal on management. The skill is not there yet in many Chinese developers,”explains Tang. “Secondly, the herd mentality common in Chinese investment is also at work here, which may lead to bubbles. Thirdly, even if prices overheat, the government would

not consider it a matter of national security like it is in the residential sector. Consequently they will not intervene to cool prices or regulate the market.”

The most important factor in the success of a commercial development is location and environment. But it is not easy to make good choices across China’s vast landscape – the process of selecting location poses the greatest risk for commercial property developments, as well as the greatest opportunity.

“Certain second and third tier cities have solid economic foundations and great potential for retail developments,” says Tang. “Their citizens have high spending power, but need to be directed and educated in their spending habits. This represent a good opportunity to mould brand loyalty if a well thought out, large scale retail development could be organized.”

But these locations have to be picked out carefully as areas across China have great diversity. Some cities, such as Hangzhou and Ningbo both in Zhejiang Province, are home to hidden wealth and spending power that cannot begauged by GDP or other standard measures. Other cities have inflated property prices that do not reflect their underlying economic health or future potential.

Media headlines have grabbed attention with skyrocketing property prices in the central business districts of first tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing. But Tang is more sceptical of developments in less tried and tested areas – such as the outskirts of established cities, and fast growing third-tier cities.

Though a few have economic potential, the rest of these developments are risky at best.

“In the residential sector, price growth has slightly reduced in first tier cities and stabilized in second tier cities. But fast growth continues in third tier cities. For example in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province, prices have almost doubled this year. Many of these places I think is problematic and likely to turn into bubbles,” says Tang.

The same risks apply to the commercial sector. Tang spends most of his time travelling. Recently he has been called on to advise a number of ‘New Towns’ – urban areas built from scratch on the outskirts of established cities. They include both commercial and residential properties.

Most of these however, he says, are not promising.

Retail and office districts require a long time to mature. In developed cities like Shanghai and Beijing, there is always profit to be made from upgrading retail facilities in both central and more suburban districts as income levels rise. Also, increasing transport links make it a profitable investment long into the future.

The importance of established central districts is even more important for offices. To this end, grade A offices in the primary CBDs of first and second-tier cities will not lack demand, says Tang, as will the low end office market. Opportunities for mid-level offices remain limited across the country.

However, for the ‘new towns’ under construction, it remains unclear whether conditions are in place to make them successful once complete.

Like developments in more remote cities, these have been mandated by local government from the top down. Many of these, especially outside the developed coastal and Yangzte delta areas, rarely take into account the grassroots economic demand. Instead they are often a tool in advancing political careers.

“Another reason they are being built is that these local governments are preparing to accommodate future urbanization. They have to build now as the cost of waiting is just too high with rising land, property and construction costs. Therefore things are being built before the time is mature.”

Worryingly, this is a common approach that is replicated across the country, and a significant contributing factor to the current residential property bubble.

Broadway Malyan’s corporate fit out for HSBC in Singapore has completed and the project has been awarded a Green Mark Platinum rating by Singapore’s Building and Construction Authority. Read more on Broadway Malyan’s HSBC fit out completes and building wins green platinum rating…

The Meinhardt Group, the global engineering, infrastructure and project management consultancy, today announced it has acquired India-based Eigen Technical Services Pvt. Ltd., a leading provider of advanced engineering services to the global construction industry, from Laing O’Rourke, the privately-owned, international engineering and construction group. Read more on Global Engineering Consultant Meinhardt Acquires Eigen and Expands India Footprint…

Following the acknowledgement of the world’s first LEED gold-certified TFT-LCD facility in 2009, AU Optronics Corp. (“AUO” or the “Company”) (TAIEX: 2409; NYSE: AUO) announced today that its G8.5 facility located in Central Taiwan Science Park has passed ISO 50001(*) standard for energy management.  AUO is the world’s first TFT-LCD manufacturer to have obtained this certification, again demonstrating the Company’s extraordinary achievements in green practice. Read more on AUO’s Acquisition of ISO 50001 Certification Sets Example as Green Company…

logon Creative Director, Frank Krueger and the logon lab, R&D Director Pascal Hartmann lecture “The limits of Green Architecture & the philosophy of sustainable architecture” at the Green Building Workshop Series held on March 10th was attended by industry experts, architects and industry media. Read more on Limitations of Green Architecture in China…

Mr Mah Bow Tan, Minister for National Development, announced in Parliament on 3 Mar 2011 that the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) will be enhancing the Housing Developers (Control & Licensing) Act (HDCLA) and the Housing Developers Rules (HDR) to give home-buyers better access to accurate and timely information about the market and units that they are buying. Read more on Public consultation on proposed changes to the Housing Developers (Control & Licensing) Act & Housing Developers Rules…

Contemporary innovative re-use projects with a sustainable ROI are the new trend amongst Asian-developers taking a more grown up approach to property development.
Annette Albutt explains.

Each re-use project comes with its own inherent cultural and structural challenges but rather than limiting a project they can become a catalyst for dynamic contemporary design whilst creating a magnet of interest and fiscal support for the community -  and a profitable ROI for their valued investors.

Most developers articulate that a ‘clean page’ is preferred when designing their vision of a future that sweeps away the old to make way for the new. However, now many local government urban planning departments are pressing developers to research other profitable alternatives. Some are refusing redevelopment approvals on buildings less than 10 years old (and sometimes older) due to community disruption, wastage in materials and energy, and in order to address the impact on the environment within the framework of today’s acute climate change. Read more on Architecture Coming of Age…